A recent research piece published by UBS Financial Services discusses the significant variations in IPO winners and losers. The report notes that after five years about 60% of all IPOs had negative returns. Variation in long-term performance appears to be correlated with specific IPO characteristics. Companies with revenues in excess of $1 billion and those backed by growth capital performed better over a three-year period than smaller and venture-backed companies. First-day IPO returns are not a good predictor of long-term returns. The average first-day return for IPOs in the United States has been 18% over the past 40 years. First-day returns also vary in statistically significant ways based on certain attributes. Returns are lower for larger companies based on revenues in the pre-IPO year–8.6% if revenues were greater, and 18.6% otherwise. Larger companies require less underpricing. Similarly, the first-day returns for companies that received growth capital were lower than those with venture funding, which are generally smaller and earlier stage companies. Recent IPOs have performed well. According to the report, an index of recent IPOs is up 33% year to date versus the S&P 500, and the average first-day return for IPOs in 2019 to date is 14.7%.
